LGP Global Cannabis Wrap - Issue #1

Cannabis industry wrap

I’m Paul Long CEO of Little Green Pharma (ASX:LGP). This is the first in a series of emails to LGP shareholders and investors to keep you up to speed on key developments in Australian and global cannabis markets including insights from our Executive team.

Today’s wrap looks at the shift from the black market in Australia, the legalisation of cannabis in Germany and Japan, and news that Canada might be cracking down on unpaid Canadian excise taxes.

International cannabis markets are some of the most dynamic, interesting, and rapidly evolving markets globally. I trust you will find these updates informative and help you navigate cannabis investment opportunities more effectively.

We’d also welcome any feedback on how to improve this service: p.long@lgp.global

Regards, Paul

If at any stage you’d like to be removed from this email list, please unsubscribe here.
Alternatively, if you have friends or colleagues who’d like to sign up, they can subscribe here.

 Australian highlights
Data shows significant shift towards legal pathway
  • AIHW’s National Drug Strategy Household Survey 2022-2023 shows 700,000 Australians, or 3% of the population, sourced cannabis for medical purposes in 2022-23
  • Data shows a significant shift away from the black-market and towards legal medicinal cannabis sources. Only 1 in 50 Australians sourced cannabis for medicinal purposes through legal channels in 2019. In 2022-23, this had jumped to ~22%, a 10-fold increase
LGP insights:
  • Australian industry strategy of matching and beating the black market on pricing and quality will continue to draw patients away from black market channels
  • Shows there still remains a significant potential patient base for LGP to service

To access the full report, click on the following link:https://www.aihw.gov.au/reports/medicines/medical-marijuana-cannabis#Prescribed-medical-cannabis

 
 EU highlights
Germany legalises cannabis
  • On 1 April 2024, cannabis was removed from German Narcotics List, with limited home-cultivation and personal use possession allowed and not-for-profit ‘cannabis clubs’ permitted from 1 July
  • Germany is now the largest federally legal cannabis market globally
LGP insights:
  • This is probably the biggest cannabis industry development since legalisation in Canada in 2018, and could catalyse a trend across Europe
  • Significantly improves medicinal cannabis access pathways in Germany, from importation through to prescription, clinic appointments and direct-to-patient delivery
  • Expected to significantly increase medicinal cannabis sales across the territory
Positive growth signs in Poland
  • In 2023, over 3,000kg of cannabis was distributed in Poland, with the Polish Pharmaceutical Chamber estimating the number of medicinal cannabis users is expected to reach 1.3 million by 2026
LGP insights:
  • Poland represents a particularly interesting European market given the relatively high regulatory barriers to entry, large population and growth potential, which may explain the predominance of the more sophisticated North American and German cannabis participants in that market
 North America highlights
Improved US market sentiment in US on back of German decision
  • Since news of the bill to legalise cannabis clearing its final parliamentary hurdle in Germany on 22nd March, market sentiment has improved significantly in the United States with a number of stocks surging:
    • Canopy Growth Co. (NASDAQ: CGC) up as much as 68%
    • Aurora Cannabis (NASDAQ:ACB) up as much as 26%
    • Tilray Brands (NASDAQ:TLRY) up as much as 18%
LGP insights
  • The movement in market sentiment in the US on the back of the news from Germany as well as the expected imminent reclassification of cannabis from a Schedule 1 drug (putting it in the same category as some of the hardest drugs) to a Schedule 3 drug is set to trickle down to Australian cannabis sentiment with all cannabis companies set to benefit

Canadian authorities propose garnishing CA$200m in unpaid excise duties from Canadian LPs

  • Canadian tax authorities propose to garnish CA$200m in unpaid excise duties from wholesaler payments to Canadian licenced producers (LPs)
    The unpaid excise tax, which is CA$1 per gram or 10% of the product value and deducted from top-line dried cannabis sales, has grown from CA$50m in 2022 to CA$200m in 2023

LGP insights:

  • The Canadian LP industry has struggled under the weight of the Federal excise with many blaming the excise for challenges in achieving profitability
  • Suggests tax authorities have no intention of providing any tax relief and enforcement could result in more wide-scale financial distress with flow-on effects for Canadian sales into the Australian and European markets
  • It could also affect Canadian pricing as delinquent companies are forced to include these duties in their cost base

Read the full MJBizDaily article here: https://mjbizdaily.com/canadian-cannabis-wholesalers-must-garnish-payments-over-unpaid-taxes/

Independent panel report into success of Cannabis Act 

  • A recent independent panel into the Canadian Cannabis Act (2018) has found positive progress on many key objectives, including a well-established licensing framework, steady shifting of adult consumers to legal cannabis, general adherence to laws around product promotion and claims, and significant reduction in charges for cannabis possession
  • Report also raised several areas of concern including trends in use by youth, growth in high potency products, public health and safety and economic opportunity challenges for First Nations communities, difficulty in displacing black market operations including due to costs of high excise duties, lack of enforcement resourcing, and limited research on medical applications

LGP insights:

 
  Rest of the world highlights
Japan moves to formally legalise CBD and low-THC medicinal products
  • The Japanese government has changed its stance on medicinal cannabis, with the government proposing changes by end of 2024 to legalise supply of CBD produced from cannabis plants (currently limited to ‘stalks and seeds’) and low-THC medicinal cannabis products
LGP insights:
  • Represents a significant opportunity for LGP and Australian producers given Australia’s long-held reputation for high quality agricultural products in the region

For more information about Little Green Pharma go to: www.littlegreenpharma.com